United States
US equity markets endured a volatile week, ultimately finishing lower as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against speculation of imminent rate cuts. The S&P 500 shed 1.5% over the shortened four-day trading week, while the Nasdaq 100 fell 2.3%, driven by renewed weakness in the tech sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.3%, weighed down by a slump in healthcare stocks, particularly UnitedHealth Group, which downgraded its earnings outlook.
Markets briefly stabilised after President Donald Trump flagged a forthcoming trade agreement with the European Union and confirmed a critical US-Ukraine minerals accord would be signed next week. However, optimism faded as Powell reiterated a wait-and-see stance, citing the need for further clarity on inflationary impacts from the ongoing trade war. The restrained tone disappointed markets hoping for swift intervention, prompting another sharp rebuke from Trump, who hinted at the possibility of removing Powell from office.
In economic news, jobless claims fell to a two-month low, signalling underlying labour market strength. However, the Philadelphia Fed Index posted a sharp drop, missing all economist forecasts and fuelling concerns over manufacturing activity.
Bond yields rose as Treasury markets trimmed earlier gains. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.32%, supported by a rally in oil prices and political pressure on the Fed. Meanwhile, the US dollar extended its decline for a third consecutive week, with safe-haven flows favouring gold and the Swiss franc.
Europe
European shares closed flat after the European Central Bank cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%—its seventh reduction since June last year. The Stoxx Europe 600 ended the day little changed as markets balanced looser monetary policy with a more cautious outlook from policymakers. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that downside risks to growth had intensified due to trade headwinds and global uncertainty.
The central bank’s decision to drop the term “restrictive” from its guidance offered some reassurance, but ongoing volatility limited investor enthusiasm. Technology and construction stocks lagged, while energy and mining outperformed on stronger commodity prices. Siemens Energy lifted the sector with an upgraded full-year forecast.
Luxury names underperformed as weaker Chinese demand weighed on sales. Hermès slid 3.2% and Moncler fell 2.5%, underscoring the sector’s sensitivity to global consumer trends.
While European equities have struggled in April, strategists remain cautiously optimistic, citing relative valuation support and resilient fundamentals compared to the US. Still, trade frictions and earnings downgrades remain key risks in the near term.
Australia
Australian shares extended their rally into the Easter break, with the S&P/ASX 200 rising 0.8% on Thursday to 7,819.1, capping a strong week with a 2.3% gain. Gains were broad-based, with 10 of 11 sectors finishing higher, led by energy and gold miners. The ASX is closed for a public holiday Monday, and looks set to drop -0.38% when markets resume trading on Tuesday.
The energy sector surged 3.8% as US sanctions on Iranian oil exports sent Brent crude above USD 66 per barrel. Heavyweights like Woodside and Ampol rose sharply, while Santos gained 2.9% following an uptick in production volumes.
Gold producers continued to benefit from record bullion prices amid ongoing global uncertainty. Evolution Mining, Northern Star, and Bellevue Gold all posted solid gains. The rally was further supported by robust employment data, which showed 32,200 jobs added in March and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. The strong result saw markets temper expectations for an aggressive RBA rate cut in May.
Elsewhere, Challenger jumped 10.2% after narrowing its profit guidance range, while AMP climbed 3.2% on improving net flows. Insignia Financial added 3.3% as due diligence talks with private equity suitors progressed. Pilbara Minerals reversed early losses to finish 4.4% higher despite cyclone-related disruptions.
However, Star Entertainment slumped 9.1% following a return to trading, making it the worst performer on the ASX 200.
Commodities
Gold briefly touched a fresh record above USD 3,300 an ounce before closing down 0.7% to USD 3,318.85, as safe haven demand eased late in the session. The pullback followed a 2.7% surge mid-week driven by geopolitical concerns and pressure on the Fed.
Oil rallied strongly, with West Texas Intermediate rising 3% to USD 64.37 per barrel—its best week of the year. The gains were supported by renewed US pressure on Iran’s oil exports and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The US dollar remained under pressure, extending its losing streak into a third week. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, but the euro fell 0.3% to USD 1.1370. Sterling rose 0.2% to USD 1.3266, while the yen slipped 0.4%.
Bitcoin rose 0.8% to USD 84,969.84 and Ether gained 0.8% to USD 1,585.43, maintaining recent stability in the crypto space.
Economic Calendar
No major data releases
This article was written by Paul Darwell, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
