United States
Wall Street inched higher in a calm, event-driven session as investors waited for Nvidia’s numbers to set the tone for the AI trade. The Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each rose 0.2%–0.3%, with the S&P 500 closing at a fresh record (6,481.40). With Nvidia’s market cap near US$4.4 trillion and an 8.1% weight in the index, options pricing for a ±6% next-day move underscored how one stock can sway the broader tape. After the bell, Nvidia reported revenue of US$46.7bn and guided to US$54bn (±2%) for the next quarter; shares slipped around 2.6% in late trade despite a new US$60bn buyback, highlighting how lofty expectations demand more than solid beats.
Gains were led by mega-cap tech and communication services, with AI-linked names stabilising sentiment across software and cloud, while select semis traded cautiously into results. Growth-adjacent defensives (healthcare and consumer staples) were firm as yields stayed contained, helping balance modest softness in economically sensitive groups. Financials were mixed as the long end of the curve hovered near 4.23%, limiting net-interest margin optimism; regional lenders were range-bound, while payment names tracked broader tech. Energy was steady alongside firmer crude, but materials lagged in line with softer industrial metals. Real estate eked out mild gains on the back of lower front-end rates, and utilities found support as investors maintained a barbell between quality growth and defensives. Breadth was mixed, with equal-weight measures trailing the cap-weighted index—another nod to the market’s continued reliance on a narrow leadership cohort.
Rates were steady to softer, with the US 10-year yield around 4.23% and the VIX up only slightly to 14.85—still low by historical standards. The message: sentiment remains constructive, but the bar for AI leaders is high and any wobble can reverberate across mega-cap tech. Bitcoin added 0.8% to ~US$112,100, a sign that speculative risk appetite hasn’t faded.
Europe
European equities were marginally higher (Stoxx 600 +0.1%), with a familiar split in leadership. Luxury and quality growth outperformed after Swatch’s chief downplayed tariff impacts, buoying LVMH, Richemont and Hermès. Banks lagged amid fresh worries over potential windfall taxes in Italy and broker pressure on select lenders, while travel & leisure eased following cautious commentary on summer fares from Ryanair. Technology tracked US futures ahead of Nvidia, and energy was broadly aligned with firmer crude. Basic resources softened as industrial metals drifted, reflecting the region’s sensitivity to global manufacturing trends and a firm US dollar.
Consumer discretionary strength was concentrated in high-end brands and select autos with China exposure, offsetting weakness in budget travel and leisure names. Within financials, insurers were steadier than lenders given regulatory noise and curve dynamics, while exchanges and asset managers were mixed on light volumes. Industrials traded sideways: capital goods were restrained by patchy PMI signals, while transport names faded on fuel-cost and pricing commentary. Chemicals slipped with softer feedstock sentiment, and utilities held ground as investors continued to favour earnings visibility and regulated cash flows. Overall, Europe’s tilt towards defensives and premium brands signals a preference for reliability over pure cyclicality while growth indicators remain uneven.
Australia
SPI futures imply a flat to slightly positive open (ASX 200 +3pts to 8938), masking a busy domestic agenda. At 11:30am AEST, second-quarter capex is due; a 1% q/q rise would suggest private investment remains resilient despite a slower growth backdrop. Across the Tasman, July filled jobs and business confidence land, and tonight’s US GDP revisions could nudge global rate expectations.
Reporting season is the main local driver. Wesfarmers posted a 14.4% lift in statutory profit, paired with a higher ordinary dividend and a surprise special distribution, citing strength at Bunnings and Kmart and the milestone of first product at the Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery in July. Governance continuity was addressed, with Michael Chaney to retire as chair in 2026 and Ken MacKenzie to succeed him. In resources, IGO swung to a A$955m loss on impairments and weaker markets—an illustration of the dispersion in earnings quality across the sector this season. Airlines stayed in focus after Air New Zealand reported a 14.9% drop in pre-tax profit amid capacity constraints and engine maintenance issues, though moderating fuel costs provided some relief—useful context ahead of Qantas later today.
Among mid-caps, City Chic’s turnaround progressed with underlying EBITDA positive, double-digit second-half sales acceleration and leaner inventories—classic ingredients for a retail recovery narrative if execution holds. At the big end of town, National Australia Bank appointed Inder Singh as group CFO effective March 2026; QBE confirmed his departure and will manage an orderly transition. On the macro-micro bridge, UBS upgraded lithium price forecasts on potential Chinese supply disruptions—watch for flow-through to local lithium names and to commentary from producers on pricing and contracting.
Local rates remain anchored to offshore moves, with the Australian 10-year yield near 4.32%, just above the US equivalent. For the session ahead, positioning will likely centre on three things: earnings quality (cash conversion and FY26 guidance), macro sensitivity (capex data and US revisions), and the global tech impulse filtering through sector rotations on the ASX.
Commodities and currencies
Brent crude gained 0.8% to US$67.78 a barrel, aided by a steady risk tone and expectations of tighter inventories into the shoulder season. Gold edged up 0.1% to ~US$3,397/oz, balancing slightly lower front-end yields with a firm US dollar. Iron ore rose 0.2% to US$102.55/t—incrementally supportive for local miners after a choppy month. The Australian dollar firmed to US$0.6507 (+0.2%), reflecting improved risk appetite and pre-capex positioning. Crypto stayed bid, with bitcoin near US$112,138 (+0.8%).
Economic Calendar
EU:
- Consumer Confidence Aug 19:00
- M3 Money Supply YoY 18:00
US:
- GDP 2nd Quarter 22:30
- Initial Jobless Claims Aug 22:30
- Continuing Claims Aug 22:30
This article was written by Paul Darwell, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
