US equities were little changed on Tuesday as investors await GDP and inflation data later this week.
United States
The S&P500 edged -0.28% lower along with the Dow Jones -0.08, the Nasdaq Composite was also -0.42% weaker and the VIX 0.38% lower at 13.24. The S&P500 is on track for a five-month winning streak, a feature last accomplished back in 2013. In economic data, durable goods order for February rose 1.4% compared to estimates of 1.1%. Meanwhile, consumer confidence for March was slightly softer than expected at 104.7 vs forecasts of 107.
Europe
European equities rose to a fresh record on Tuesday as investors continue to bet on rate cuts later this year. Based on swap rates, investors are pricing in an 83 chance of a rate cut with a 63% chance of a second cut in July. The Euro Stoxx 600 finished 0.24% higher along with the DAX 0.67%, CAC 0.41% and FTSE100 0.17%. In economic data, German consumer confidence was mostly in line with expectations at -27.4 compared to -27.99 forecast.
Australia
The ASX is expected to open slightly lower this morning with ASX200 futures down -19 points or -0.24% to 7,819. The index finished -0.41% lower on Tuesday with the majority of sectors weaker and 59% of stocks lower. Premier Investments rose 4.4% after announcing better-than-expected half-year sales and proceeding with a demerger of stationery chain Smiggle. Elsewhere, shares in biopharmaceutical company Mesoblast surged 45.5% after the US FDA deemed recent trial data as being sufficient to allow for a re-submission of a previously rejected licence application.
In focus today is the latest monthly inflation estimate for February with forecasts of a 3.5% increase over the 12 months following a 3.4% increase to January. Ahead of the release, analysts at TD Securities note “Rents have been sticky but lower tradeables prices have proven to be a powerful disinflationary force”. Meanwhile, Westpac is forecasting a higher reading of inflation, expecting a 3.8% increase over the year. Ahead of the release, the Australian Dollar is modestly lower by -0.14% to 0.6531.
Commodities
Oil prices were modestly weaker overnight with both WTI and Brent crude -0.59% and -0.83% lower respectively. Iron ore futures on Tuesday were -4.07% weaker and are little changed at US$104.05 this morning with copper -0.27% lower. Gold was 0.23% higher at US$2,176 an oz, silver is -1.11% lower at US$24.41 along with Bitcoin -1.79%.
Economic Calendar
27th March 2024
Westpac Leading Index (MoM Feb) 11:00
ANZ Business Confidence (MoM Mar) 11:00
Australian Inflation (YoY Feb) 11:30
This article was written by James Woods, Portfolio Manager, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
