United States
Wall Street managed modest gains to open the week, though investors remain preoccupied by the threat of a federal government shutdown. The S&P 500 rose 0.3%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.4%, and the Dow finished 0.1% higher. Bond markets rallied, with the 10-year Treasury yield easing to 4.14%, reflecting the tendency for shutdown fears to support safe-haven assets.
Markets are particularly concerned that a shutdown could delay the release of critical economic data, including Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Without these figures, the Federal Reserve will have less guidance on whether further rate cuts are warranted. Adding to the complexity, President Donald Trump met with congressional leaders in an effort to avert the looming October 1 deadline, though talks concluded without agreement. Meanwhile, Fed officials struck different tones: St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem warned against rushing into further cuts given inflationary pressures, while New York Fed President John Williams noted that risks to employment are rising.
Corporate news also grabbed headlines. Jefferies Financial Group posted record third-quarter revenue, buoyed by a revival in dealmaking and stronger trading conditions. The firm described the surge in advisory revenue as part of a broader trend expected to persist into the next quarter. Separately, Electronic Arts agreed to a landmark leveraged buyout involving a group led by Jared Kushner’s investment firm and Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund.
Europe
European equities moved higher, with the Stoxx 600 closing up 0.2%. Gains were broad-based, though sector rotation was evident. Basic resources led the advance after Bank of America raised its copper price forecasts, sending Antofagasta up more than 5% and Rio Tinto and Anglo American each around 2% stronger.
Healthcare was another standout. Belgian biopharmaceutical company UCB surged 16% to a record high after rival Moonlake’s trial results disappointed, undercutting its competing drug. Roche and AstraZeneca also gained, the latter announcing plans to strengthen its US listing. Meanwhile, GSK rallied 2% following the surprise resignation of CEO Emma Walmsley, who will be succeeded by chief commercial officer Luke Miels.
Luxury goods stocks also had a strong session, helped by optimism from UBS that sector demand is improving. Hermes rose 2.4% and LVMH climbed 1.4%. In contrast, energy shares dragged the index lower, reflecting a drop in oil prices after reports that OPEC+ could raise production in November. BP fell 2.4% and TotalEnergies lost 2.2%.
Banks were a notable weak spot, with UniCredit tumbling 2.6% and Deutsche Bank slipping 1.7%. However, some Nordic lenders bucked the trend, with Nordea and Swedbank both reaching record highs.
Australia
The local sharemarket is poised for a positive open, with futures pointing to a 0.2% rise at the start of trade. The session will be dominated by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy meeting this afternoon, where the cash rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.6%. Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference an hour later will be closely watched for guidance on the economic outlook.
Domestically, company headlines are also in focus. CSL announced the promotion of chief strategy officer Ken Lim to chief financial officer, succeeding Joy Linton, who will retire after a handover period. Lim has been with CSL since 2013 and brings extensive leadership experience across the group.
In New Zealand, fast-food operator Restaurant Brands confirmed a takeover offer from its majority shareholder, Mexico’s Finaccess Restauración. The proposed NZ$5.05 per share bid represents a hefty premium to the stock’s last trade at NZ$2.70 .
Rio Tinto shares may attract attention after a Papua New Guinea court quashed a class action related to the Panguna mine. Telstra is also under pressure, with SingTel facing mounting scrutiny over Optus’s emergency call failures.
On the economic front, Australia’s budget deficit narrowed in fiscal 2025, supported by job gains. Bond markets rallied in tandem with global peers, with the local 10-year yield falling to 4.33%.
Commodities and currencies
Gold extended its rally to a fresh record high, climbing as much as 2% to US$3,833 an ounce amid heightened safe-haven demand linked to the US shutdown threat. Silver, platinum, and palladium also gained ground.
Oil prices retreated sharply. Brent crude slid 3.5% to US$67.65 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.8% to settle at US$63.20. The declines came as traders assessed signals that OPEC+ may lift production again in November, raising the risk of oversupply.
In currency markets, the Australian dollar firmed 0.5% to US65.77¢, supported by stronger commodity prices earlier in the week. The euro edged up 0.2% to US$1.1727, while the Japanese yen gained 0.6% to trade near ¥148.64 per dollar.
Cryptocurrencies also advanced, with Bitcoin up 3.1% to US$114,315 and Ether rising 3.5% to US$4,194
Economic Calendar
AU:
- Building Approvals MoM Aug 11:30
- Private Sector Credit MoM/YoY 11:30
- RBA Cash Rate Target Sep 14:30
US:
- MNI Chicago PMI Sep 23:45
- Jolts Job Openings Aug 00:00
This article was written by James Woods, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
