United States
US equities stabilised on Monday as investors positioned themselves ahead of expected “retaliatory tariffs” set to be announced on Wednesday. After initial losses exceeding 1.5%, major indices recovered strongly. The S&P 500 rose 0.55% (+31 points) to close at 5,611.85, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 417 points, or 1%, finishing at 42,001. The Nasdaq Composite edged lower by 0.14% (-23 points) to close at 17,299.
Analysts attributed the late-session buying to month-end and quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, as funds shifted allocations between bonds and equities following significant moves over the past 31 and 90 days. These rebalancing effects tend to intensify when performance differentials widen, particularly when driven by algorithmic trading systems.
Among individual stocks, Tesla declined 1.67%, and Nvidia dropped 1.18% to $108.38, though both recovered from deeper intraday losses. AI Cloud, a recent IPO, fell 7.3% to $37.08—below its $40 issue price—after an anticipated post-listing rally failed to materialise.
Apple outperformed, rising 1.94% to $222.13 after announcing the expansion of Apple Intelligence with new language versions including Spanish, Portuguese, French, and German. Microsoft slipped 0.90% to $375.39.
Energy stocks rallied on rising oil prices. ConocoPhillips gained 2.59% to $105.02, while ExxonMobil added 1.02% to close at $118.93.
Airline stocks remained under pressure following Virgin Atlantic’s warning about a drop in transatlantic travel demand. United Airlines fell 1.68% to $69.05, and American Airlines declined 1.40%, as domestic demand also weakened.
Meanwhile, concerns over US economic growth intensified. CNBC’s “Rapid Update” survey of 14 economists now forecasts Q1 GDP growth at just 0.3%, down from 2.3% in Q4. Inflation is expected to remain at 2.9%. If accurate, these figures would place the US economy perilously close to stagflation—marked by stagnating growth and persistent inflation.
US bond yields continued their downward move, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling 4 basis points to 4.21% and the 2-year yield down 2 basis points to 3.91%.
Today, investors will focus on labour market data, with the release of the JOLTS job openings report. The US dollar strengthened, rising 0.19% on the Bloomberg Dollar Index.
Europe
Shares in the Eurozone extended their decline as renewed tariff talk and aggressive rhetoric from US President Trump over the weekend prompted investors to reduce exposure ahead of what is expected to be a volatile week. The Euro Stoxx 600 fell 1.51% to 533.92, with every sector except energy posting losses. Technology and materials were the worst-performing sectors.
In the UK, the FTSE 100 declined 0.88% to close at 8,582.81.
Monday’s drop brought the Euro Stoxx 600’s monthly performance to -4.17%, although the index remains up 5.18% year-to-date.
Travel stocks were hit hard following a warning from Virgin Atlantic about weakening demand for UK-bound travel from the US. Shares in International Consolidated Airlines Group (IAG), the parent company of British Airways, dropped 6.62%, while Ryanair shares fell 5%.
Material stocks also retreated, pressured by declines in copper and iron ore prices as well as broader concerns over the impact of tariffs on global growth. Anglo American shares fell 4.81%, while Glencore declined 4.19%.
In contrast, energy stocks gained on the back of rising oil prices due to supply concerns. Shell rose 1%, and French oil giant TotalEnergies added 0.76%.
Today, markets await the release of Eurozone inflation data, with core CPI expected to decline 0.1% year-on-year to 2.5%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde commented on Monday that the introduction of further US tariffs—referred to as “liberation day” by the US President —underscores the need for Europe to take greater control of its economic future. She also noted that the tariffs could reduce growth by 0.3% in the first year.
In fixed income, bond yields were mixed. The German Bund yield rose 1 basis point to 2.73%, while the UK 10-year gilt yield fell 2 basis points to 4.67%. The euro was slightly lower, with EUR/USD trading at 1.0816.
Australia
A broad selloff across Asian markets on Monday, following declines on Wall Street last Friday, extended to the Australian market. The ASX 200 closed lower by 1.74%, shedding 138.6 points to finish at 7,843.4. The market opened 1.5% lower and remained flat before accelerating losses into the close. So far in March, the ASX 200 has declined 4%, bringing its year-to-date performance to a loss of 3.9%.
All sectors of the ASX 200 ended the day in the red, with materials and energy leading the losses. The materials sector dropped 3.35% as investor sentiment soured amid renewed growth concerns due to tariff risks. Iron ore fell 1.5% in Asian trading, further pressuring the sector. BHP lost 3.75% to $38.20, while Rio Tinto plunged 4.76% (-$5.77) to close at $115.49.
Despite gold breaking through a record high of US$3,100, gold miners were also sold off. Evolution Mining slipped 1.25% to $7.11, and Ramelius Resources dropped 4.05% to $2.37.
Energy stocks were caught in the same selloff, with the sector falling 2.68%. Woodside lost 2.9% to $23.12. Uranium miner Paladin Energy dropped 5.72% to $5.11, although Boss Energy rose 1.22% to $2.48 following broker reports suggesting the company could beat its annual production guidance.
Financials also declined. Growth-focused Macquarie Group dropped 3.35% to $196.64. ANZ fell 1.86%, down 55 cents to $29.09, as it announced that new CEO Nuno Matos will begin his role two months early, starting May 12. Commonwealth Bank (CBA) managed a modest gain of 0.33% to $150.93 after announcing it would send top technology engineers to Seattle to collaborate with Microsoft and Amazon in developing the banks AI capabilities.
The ASX Ltd fell 2.75% to $65.14 after regulators—the RBA and ASIC—highlighted operational and compliance risks following a CHESS outage in late December that caused two days of unsettled trades. ASX stated it would work with ASIC to appoint an external technical expert to conduct a review.
In the technology sector, Life360 dropped 5.53% to $19.18, tracking the Nasdaq lower, while NextDC lost 3.25% to close at $11.31. In contrast, WiseTech Global rose 1.47% after announcing the appointment of two independent non-executive directors. The company also said it would provide an update on its succession plan in the coming weeks. One of the new directors, Andrew Harrison, is a former chairman of the company.
Looking ahead, retail sales data is scheduled for release today, along with the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decision. While the RBA is widely expected to hold rates steady, investors will be closely watching for any shift in language regarding future rate cuts, especially in light of heightened global economic uncertainty since the last meeting in February.
In fixed income markets, bond yields moved lower in line with global peers. The 10-year yield fell 7 basis points to 4.38%, while the 2-year yield declined 6 basis points to 3.67%.
The bounce in US equities has seen the ASX200 futures rally strongly overnight with a 67-point gain to be higher by 0.85%. The AUDUSD is trading lower by 0.6% to be at 0.6248.
Commodities
Oil prices surged at the start of the week amid rising supply concerns stemming from potential US actions against Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 3.10%, gaining US$2.15 to settle at US$71.51, while Brent crude jumped 2.75%, or US$2.00, to close at US$74.76.
The rally was driven by fears of further disruption to global supply. The US administration signalled it may impose secondary tariffs on nations purchasing Russian oil if President Putin is deemed to be obstructing US efforts to achieve peace in Ukraine. Additionally, the US President threatened Iran with both airstrikes and secondary sanctions if an agreement over its nuclear program is not reached.
Further tightening supply, US authorities revoked export authorisations previously granted to international partners of Venezuela’s state oil company, PDVSA. Spain’s Repsol was among those affected, prompting the Spanish government to announce it would defend the company’s interests.
Gold continued its strong run, climbing 1.23% (+US$37.87) to US$3,123.11, as investors sought safety amid growing economic uncertainty and market volatility. Gold has now posted its best quarterly performance since 1986, ending March with an impressive 9.3% gain. Silver held steady at US$34.06, while Bitcoin retreated, trading lower at US$82,433.
Copper prices declined, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark falling 0.85% (US$84) to US$9,710 per tonne. On the Comex exchange, US copper futures fell more sharply by 1.81%. Iron ore also slipped, falling 90 cents in New York for a 0.88% decline from its Saturday close, though it showed a modest gain compared to Monday’s Asian session.
Economic Calendar
AU:
- Retail Sales (Feb) – 11:30am
- RBA Interest Rate Decision – 2:30pm
China:
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar) – 12:45pm
EU:
- Eurozone Inflation Rate – (Mar) – 8:00pm
US:
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Mar) – 1:00am
- JOLTS Job Openings (Feb) – 1:00am
- Construction Spending (Feb) – 1.00am
This article was written by Paul Darwell, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
