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Virtually Live: 15th April 2021

15 Apr 2021
By
In this week's Virtually Live, Shannon Rivkin covers Elixir Energy Ltd (EXR), Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS), Piedmont Lithium (PLL) and Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST). Shannon also discusses coinbase and the future of coal. 

In this week’s show

  • 0:44 – Coinbase update
  • 2:31 – Q1:  What are your thoughts on the future of coal and the impacts of the pandemic and environmental issues?
  • 7:47 – Q2: What are your thoughts on Elixir Energy Ltd (EXR) it’s a share that is up over 100% in the last 8 months.
  • 12:07 – Q3: Can you please provide your thoughts on Pilbara Minerals Ltd (PLS) and Piedmont Lithium (PLL)?
  • 16:10 – Q4: Can I please have your views on Northern Star Resources Ltd (NST) in relation to the Saracen Minerals merger?

 

Listen to the audio version

 

New Educational Videos

Members should also watch out for the first of a new series of educational videos that Rivkin plans on producing. These videos will be 3 to-6 minutes in length. We don’t want to inundate members with emails, so you can opt in to receive emails when they are released or you can simply see them on the website. The first one is discussing the opening and closing rotations on the ASX and can be found through HERE.

Rivkin does not take into account your or anyone else’s personal situation in their market and stock commentary. Please keep this in mind when you are taking buy and sell decisions about any of these stocks that are mentioned in our Virtually Lives.

Video Transcript (click anywhere to play)

SHOW COMMENTS / QUESTIONS (258)

258
Comments

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David J.

Hi Shannon, what are your thoughts on the future of coal and the impacts of the pandemic and environmental issues. In particular S32 which I see it has been knocked back on expansion of Dendroblum mine by IPC

Robert S.

Rob Qld — have a passing interest in the co. AIM Access Inovation Holdings Ltd seems like a go ahead co with bright prospects, and a well accredited new CEO. your views would be appreciated

Stephen Y.

Hi Shannon, I’d also be grateful for your views on McPherson’s (MCP) as an arbitrage opportunity. MCP is currently subject to a hostile on market takeover bid by Gallin Pty Ltd at $1.34 per share. MCP closed on 1 April at $1.415. It seems that the market has priced in a higher offer from Gallin.

Stephen Y.

Hi Shannon, I’d be grateful for your views on Monash Absolute Investment Company (MA1) as an arbitrage opportunity. MA1 is a LIC proposing to restructure into an ETMF. This is largely aimed at removing the discount to NTA which it has tended to trade at. As part of the restructuring, MA1 is proposing to pay out its franking credits. The discount to NTA seems to have narrowed since the restructuring was mooted. Query, however, whether the franking credits together with the remaining discount, makes this a worthwhile opportunity.

Ross W.

hi Shannon iam looking at buying high dividend with growth in the future for my smsf one of my concerns is understanding good fundermentals for example debit vs equity %, pe ratios,dividend stabilty as technical analyses is my strong point whats your thoughts on what i should be looking at when it comes to fundermentals in picking stocks

Paul H.

Hi Shannon. What are your views on Vita Group as a small dividend play? I noticed today it has gone ex-dividend paying >10% dividend yield and its recent profit increase looked promising.

Paul H.

Hi Shannon. Can I get your thoughts on the reasons for the good run by AGL and Origin over the last week or two? Quite impressive after both going ex-dividend recently.

Daryl L.

Hi Shannon
Just wondering if given the recent slow deterioration in APT share price we should be concerned, or do its fundamentals remain sound?
Thanks
Daryl

Mervyn Y.

Hi Shannon.
Can I please get your thoughts on the Crown takeover offer from Blackstone? I am a current holder of Crown shares and was wondering whether I should hold and see what happens or sell given all the uncertainty with the royal commissions going on?
Thanks.

Kristie S.

Hi Shannon,
I participated in the Citadel Group (CGL) Event trade which completed on 17th Dec last. I received no settlement payment & was shocked to receive advice that I had been allocated shares in Pacific Group Topco Ltd., which your office advises is an unlisted company. I have tried to investigate what went wrong , with no success. What do you suggest I do & what could RIVKIN do to assist.
Kristie

Paul H.

Hi Shannon. What do you think about Fortescue Metal Group’s massive decline since announcing its ‘Green’ projects and going ex-dividend (I think in the region of almost 20%)? On even a a conservative calculation of future dividend yield it looks a standout buy. Do we trust the management (who may be buying the stock) to be cutting edge leaders in this technology and make substantial future profits or do we err on the side of analysts who suggest that future earnings are looking bleak and the ‘Green’ projects will only add to the decline. Thanks

Michael T.

Hi Shannon, Would like to know your thoughts on ASX Ltd. Broadly speaking when the market has gone up their share price has follow. Not the case recently ??. Is now a good buying opportunity.
Mike T

David F.

Could you please comment on Sunland. They paid a dividend of 30c this week and I understand its fully franked. The companies plan is to give back about $2.55. Will the shareholders still own the stock after this has happened or will there be some capital component in what they are giving back. Thanks
David from Logan.

Rafael A.

your view on Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals
tnx

John G.

Hi Shannon,
Most people (including myself) regard CSL as either the best company on the ASX or one of the best. Yet, at one stage, it went from its high of $330, down to $242! That’s a 25% fall. To me, it resembled a third rate mining company, going out the back door. I am aware, that it has problems in the USA with plasma collections, but would the AstraZeneka vaccine production in Australia, not compensate for it? What is your opinion of this huge price movement and do you view it, as a buying or top up opportunity?
Kind regards,
John
NSW

Peter D.

Question for Virtually Live – what are your thoughts on the newly listed NUIX (NXL) please? The stock has taken a hammering since listing. There was an article today by Adele Ferguson in the AFR about the stock.

Wayne S.

Hi Shannon, I’m a long time holder of Yellow. brick Road YBR (after following Mark Boris) and Anita Health AVH (previously CCE). I’m losing patience In both. Is it time to sell?

Thanks. Wayne

Anonymous User

Would you recommend buying into the US market for health, tech and robotic stocks?

Michael T.

Hi Shannon, would like to hear your opinion on Jumbo Interactive Ltd (JIN). Balance sheet looks to be in good order, good management team. Not sure what happened late 2019 to cause the share price to fall so dramatically but would appear to be on the road to recovery. Do you think this is a company worth investing in. Have sent you a separate email on research done this end.
Thanks Mike T

Ralph H.

Dear team, Ralph from Brissie here. I have a question about the Lithium Battery producer companies, like TLG, NVX, EGR for example. There are dozens of them all burning through huge amounts of cash, and each one of them claiming to be the end all and be all with their “breakthrough” technology. Is there any way of sorting through all this bull, and determining which companies are likely to succeed? Or is it like the old saying about oil exploration – “Ten times more money changes hands on the stock market, than ever comes out of the ground.” BTW. I… Read more »

Bruce G.

Hi Team, Can you discuss the upcoming hybrids from CBA and MQG in the next virtually live? Are they attractive given the current low interest environment? Regards Bruce from NSW

John G.

Hello Shannon,
I am one of those people, who are very reluctant to take a loss. Many would say this is obstinate, irrational, stupid. They are probably right. I still hold Pioneer Credit (PNC) in my portfolio. Today, they have published their half yearly report. I did not think it was all that bad, but their price slipped further down. Today almost everything went backwards, so I am not attaching a great deal of significance to it. What is your view of this company in the medium term?
Regards,
John
NSW

Phillip K.

Thank you again Shannon.
What do you think of SSM Service Stream Linited, price has fallen-but will it recover over time? The business has some niche-like attributes or am I delusional?
regards
Phillip

Wayne S.

Hi Shannon, I would like your opinion on Santos. Where do you see it’s short to medium term price?

Thanks
Wayne

Ryan S.

Hi Guys,

A few weeks back you called it right and AGL has dropped quite a bit since then, what are your thoughts on TCL please for next weeks show

Cheers
Ryan

Paul H.

Hi Shannon. I was looking at the upcoming dividend for Origin energy. I note the current dividend is $0.125 and unfranked. I think the final dividend last year was also unfranked. Can you comment on whether there are reasons to be optimistic about franking to return to 100%? In terms of a ‘dividend stock’ should I be considering the gross Dividend as equal to the net dividend only (about 5.32% today)? In the Rivkin High Dividend table the gross dividend is 6.82?

Graham B.

Hi Shannon,
Would you please comment on Magellan Financial Group (MFG). Is their average performance in recent months and declining share price a case of lack of preparedness to accept what others see as “acceptable risk/return” and therefore miss recovering stocks or more a fundamental problem with an exit strategy our best option?

James Y.

hi team, I was interested in Shannon’s comments on energy companies VEN and BLU. The Renewables 2020 Global Status Report (GSR) focuses on developments in renewable energy in 2019. Despite the growing deployment of renewable energy around the world, the share of renewables in total final energy consumption (TFEC) has seen only a moderate increase. As of 2018iv, modern renewable energy (excluding the traditional use of biomass) accounted for an estimated 11% of TFEC, only a slight increase from 9.6% in 2013. The largest portion was renewable electricity (5.7% of TFEC), followed by renewable heat (4.3%) and transport biofuels (1.0%)..… Read more »

Tony D.

Hi Team, I hold some share in medicinal cannabis company MGC Pharmaceuticals (MXC), which has had an extraordinary run since announcing their listing on the London exchange a couple of weeks ago Do you have any views on this stock? Should I take the money and run?

Paul H.

Hi Shannon. How do you rate Southern Cross Media as a high yield stock? Seems like they have solid franked yield. Are there any known negatives holding the stock price down? How do you rate the level of risk for this stock over the longer term?

Paul H.

Upon further research it appears that Southern Cross Media appear to have no plans to pay a dividend anytime soon. In view of the uncertainty over regular dividend payments I’m happy to drop this question if there are more worthy ones for your attention.

Stephen T.

Hi Shannon. I have holding in all of the 4 big banks and intend reducing my holdings to 3. The purpose of the holdings is income and whilst they are not currently in your Blue Chip portfolio I think they will return to paying good dividends when things recover after the pandemic. Which one would you suggest I dump?

Mark R.

Shannon, I’m interested in what you think about my plans for my AYS holding… If I was going to accept the WAM offer, I’d hold them for a few months for their dividend, or at least until the selling by ex-AYS holders subsides and the WAM price rises. Therefore no need to accept until closer to the offer close date, which also gives me time to reassess. If WAM extends the offer beyond the AYS initial distribution, I would accept the offer after the payment for a better overall return. If WAM doesn’t announce an extension, I’m inclined not to… Read more »

Graham B.

Hi Shannon, With the rollout of vaccine over the next few months and acknowledging lockdown “hickups” along the way, would you please comment on SCG Scentre Group as a possible come back story.

Thanks Graham

John G.

Hi Shannon, What is your opinion of holding (at least for the time being) WAM shares. The current price, as I am writing is $2.10. On that it shows 7.2% yield + franking. That is over 10% gross. AYS is now a cash box. I am not sure if that is sufficient to counterbalance the weight of all the new shares they have issued, to finance all the extra dividend payments that comes with the new shares. The June dividend payment is already announced. My question is “will WAM be able to maintain such high dividend payments in the future,… Read more »

Phillip K.

Hi Shannon, do you have a positive view of VEN and BLU and could you please comment on them. Thank you
Regards,
Phillip

Phillip K.

thanks for commentary, I guess same long term effect explains APA price.

Ralph H.

Dear Team. Ralph from Brissie here. I would like your opinion on K2F. I have made some profits trading in and out of this stock over the last eighteen months, based on my statistical analysis of its SP graphs etc, but the company is fairly opaque regarding information on itself. I note our holdings have been diluted 15% recently, by the script issued for takeovers. Like most subscribers, I value your opinions and research. ie, 1. Does it gave any debt? (It claims none, and says it has cash in the bank) 2. Are these takeovers earnings accretive, in the… Read more »

Mark R.

Hi Team. What do you think are the chances that WAM will extend their offer after the AYS record date for the initial distribution & dividend. The WAM offer document mentions that WAM may do this, reducing the consideration by the value of the distribution & dividend. Reason I ask is that by holding until after the record date, I get the benefit of the franking credits and still the same overall value… less WAM shares but some cash and franking credits. That would be a better deal for those who value franking, but only if WAM does extend the… Read more »

Souix J.

Hello Shannon,
could you please comment on NST take over of SAR and its effect on the share price (short and long term) of the new company after take over is completed.
Best regards,
jan.

Peter T.

For Virtually Live

Hi Shannon,

Q1. Could you comment on Lake Resources ( LKE ) and it’s amazing ride in the last week or so. Do you think there is still upside here or has it run too far too fast?

Q2. Another stock that came onto my radar recently is ArchTIS ( AR9 ), a defence and security related tech stock. Any views?

Many thanks,

Peter – Balwyn, Vic

Agustin Benitez

Hi Peter. Your questions were added in tomorrow’s VL. Thanks 🙂

Daryl L.

Hi Team
Just wondering your view on the Bingo takeover by private equity CPE Capital please?
Thanks
Daryl-Greenvale Vic

Mervyn Y.

Hi Shannon.
If the WAM offer equates to $0.86 per share against the current AYS price of $0.74, the discount seems quite large compared to the risk/reward… is there any reason why AYS isn’t trading closer to $0.86?
Thank you.

Daryl L.

Hi Shannon
Happy New Year, just wondering the Teams current view on WTC-Wisetech Global please?
Much appreciated
Daryl

Danny J.

G’day Shannon,
Given recent commentary on FMG, BHP, RIO and the resources sector in general and in light of the Iron ore price over recent months do you expect these companies to do a bit of capital management following half year results by way of special dividends, share buy backs etc. FMG in particular must be sitting on a huge mountain of cash. Any thoughts
Regards
Danny

Ian G.

Hi Shannon
During this period I have had lots of time to do research and one term that is being used a lot by analysts in discussions is “rotation stocks”. Are you able to give a layman’s description of what this means in terms of the market.
Cheers Ian

James Y.

What can be done when loyal shareholders are not offered the opportunity to purchase additional shares when their holding has been diluted by a company placement to institutional and other investors? Shannon has made members aware of this issue in the past. I have written to Mr Subhash Challa Chairman and Managing Director, SenSen Networks Limited SNS as follows. The questions I have raised are at the end of this letter Dear Mr Challa, On 6 January SenSen announced that it had raised $7.15 million through the issue of 57,200,000 shares at $0.125 per share (Placement) to institutional and sophisticated… Read more »

James Y.

Post Scriptum
Post scriptum
Dear Mr Challa,
I regard SenSen networks as a reputable company and I look forward to your consideration of my requests.
Yours sincerely,
James Y

James Y.

Mr Subhash Challa rang me at home today Sunday and provided me with a full explanation.
I’m impressed!

Shane D.

Hi Shannon, can you comment of Carnarvon (CVN) Petroleum transiting from an exploration company to a production company. CVN hold several permits off the north west shelf W/A, recently CVN entered into an equity agreement with Advance Energy enabling CVN to progress its Dorado oil development and Buffalo oil redevelopment. Early days I know, however CVN’s future looks okay, your thoughts?.

Keith E.

Good call on not moving too fast on potential take-over situations, Shannon. I refer specifically to LNK which was the subject of a take-over by an American outfit for $5.65. Couple of days ago they withdrew so the LNK share price went over a cliff. I have to admit I looked at taking a punt on LNK, REG or TNK but I kept hearing your voice in my head advising to wait until things firmed up, so I resisted the temptation and am now glad I did. More a comment than a question, but I do think the LNK situation… Read more »

Bruce S.

Hi Team I have an inquiry / question for Virtual Live Would you care to give an option on Strategic Elements Limited (SOR) ? This is a research Company associated with the University of NSW . It is involved with Liquid Battery Technology and Nanocube Memory . This is high tech in the extreme . Cutting edge stuff . All research reports that i have seen are looking very bright for this Company .The Stock has begun to take off. From 15 cents to 32 cents within a week And whats more because it is research there is an exemption… Read more »

John G.

Hello Shannon, Pilbara Minerals (PLS) is purchasing the adjoining lithium mining lease from a company that went broke. I have my doubts whether this is a good idea. If the vendor company could not make money out of it, why would PLS be successful? I can see some advantages, the synergies of having a larger area, may be the use of the same equipment and machinery, but is that sufficient? My other concern is, PLS debasing the value of everyone’s holding, by conducting an equity raise, issuing shares at $0.36 to finance the purchase. A few days ago, it was… Read more »

Alan S.

On 17 December in relation to rare earth plays you mentioned Alkane Resources (ALK) as a RE stock. Sorry to correct you but ALK is a pure gold stock now after demerging their subsidiary company Australian Strategic Materials (ASM) in July 2020.
ASM has a great story to tell in the RE space having links with South Korea in the development of a new cleaner process for extracting RE minerals.
Could you please research ASM and provide a view in your next Virtually Live.
cheers
Alan

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