Virtually Live
Markets
Australia

Virtually Live: 9th April

9 Apr 2020
By
In this week's Virtually Live, Shannon Rivkin provides a quick market update, briefly discusses Rivkin's investing philosophy during these market times and addresses member questions covering; Magellan High Conviction Trust (MMH), share placements, Stanmore Coal (SMR) and Oil Search (OSH). 

In this week’s show

  • 0:25 – Market update
  • 2:31 – Rivkin’s investment philosophy
  • 5:31 – Q1:  Who benefits from the Magellan High Conviction Trust (MMH) share buyback? The shareholders or management?
  • 7:07 – Q2: Discussion on share placements regarding big institutional investors and small retail investors.
  • 10:52 – Q3: Question on Stanmore Coal (SMR).
  • 13:07 – Q4: Oil Search (OSH) is currently in a trading halt and looking to conduct a capital raise, what are your thoughts for investors holding this stock?

 

 

Listen to the audio version

 

New Educational Videos

Members should also watch out for the first of a new series of educational videos that Rivkin plans on producing. These videos will be 3 to-6 minutes in length. We don’t want to inundate members with emails, so you can opt in to receive emails when they are released or you can simply see them on the website. The first one is discussing the opening and closing rotations on the ASX and can be found through HERE.

Rivkin does not take into account your or anyone else’s personal situation in their market and stock commentary.  Please keep keep this in mind when you are taking buy and sell decisions about any of these stocks that is mentioned in our Virtually Lives.

 

 

 

View Comments (56)

56
Comments

Keith Eglen

Question on Stanmore Coal. If Golden Investments want to own the whole company, why don’t they just buy the shares on the ASX or is there a maximum they can acquire by this method?

Keith Eglen

A slightly different type of question that I would value your opinion on. There was a very interesting and, not a little bit troubling, article by Terry McCrann in last weekend’s Australian on the subject of Share Placements and the tendency for companies to offer heavily discounted share purchases to the big institutional investors but not to smaller retail investors like us. McCrann was very critical of the ASX and ASIC for allowing this to happen. So my question is in a number a parts: 1. Do you agree this is a significant problem? 2. If so, should we be… Read more »

Daniel Panasiuk

Thoughts on buying SMR, at 99 cents, looks like we can hold until mid May for a higher offer then sell at a $1, worst case scenario is 1% profit less brokerage with the free option of a higher bidder?

Shannon Rivkin

Hi Daniel,

Thanks for your question and it is timely as we have released a buy recommendation on the stock. You have read the situation as I have, so it looks a good buy at anything under $1.00.

Regards,
Shannon Rivkin

John Gordon

Hi Team, I have noticed MHH is continuously selling under its intrinsic value and management is conducting a buyback. There is around 8 to 15 cents difference. Who gets the benefit of this profit, the shareholders or management?

Daniel Panasiuk

Hi there, can we please add a question for Thursday, can you help me understand when I can by a stock before it goes ex entitlement. For example, if we look at Katmandu, its in a trading halt and starts trading Thursday, therefore in this example I do not believe you can buy and be eligible for the entitlement. Seeing if any opportunities may present themselves if an SPP presents itself in the future or a rights issue with the option to apply for more then your entitlement. Therefore important to know the timeline and timing of purchases

Paul Leombruni

Hi Team, What are your thoughts on Nufarm Notes – NFNG
Thanks
Paul

Bruce Glimmerveen

Hi Team, This was part of the announcement on mon 23/3/20 by National Australia Bank Limited (NAB). NAB has today successfully completed the resale of all NAB Capital Notes (NABPC) issued by NAB on 23 March 2015 (the NCN) to the NCN nominated purchaser in accordance with the resale notice issued by NAB on 17 February 2020 (Resale). Payments of $100 cash per NCN were made. Unfortunately earlier in the day there was a confusing announcement by NAB which did not lead investors to believe full face value was being paid. My question is how fast are the hybrids we… Read more »

Daryl Lee

Hi Team

Just wondering your thoughts long term on Qube (QUB). At $2.17 it’s $1 off it’s highs and seems sound, ignoring current Covid19 impacts.

Thanks
Daryl, Greenvale

Monika & Wayne Skinner

Hi Team, what are your thoughts on the restructure of PMV, Soloman Lew has long been one of the business leaders who is generally in front of the pack. Do you think PMV is a good buy in the current environment for a long term hold.

Terry Woodcock

Hi, can you comment on COH SPP

Qinghui Lin

Dear Team, Thank you very much for your comments on CWNHB. Do you think it is a Buy at current price? Thanks.

Daryl Lee

Hi Team
It has come to my attention with Momentum, every time we put NST in we lose – is there an alternative? However, if we’d held from Aug 2016 we’d have doubled our investment. Just curious, I understand it’s a strategy with certain criteria to satisfy.

Thanks
Daryl

Qinghui Lin

Hi Team, Could you please comment on the fall of CWNHB? It is supposed to be redeemed at $100 next year. But it dropped to $86 on Friday. Any reasons? Thanks.

Nathan Smith

I think P.E ratios matter, companies with bright prospects. earnings that justify stock prices, now and in years ahead, usually in the asx top 300.
With a small exception for some growth type companies, with massive potential, but this is not all growth companies.

Alan Stewart

Could you please provide an update on QMS

Daniel Panasiuk

Superloop what’s your thoughts? At 70 cents must be worth a buy as a potential takeover. Do you know why QTC walked away at $1.95?

Thomas Mestrov

If this correction is regarded as an opportunity to buy “good shares” which shares would you consider ? would you consider any of the WAAAX?

Daryl Lee

Hi Team,
Just wondering if we could have a longer term view on WTC. Clearly the $9 fall isn’t exciting but is there perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel? Maybe even an initial over reaction to the coronavirus situation wrt WTC. Daryl Greenvale Vic

Daryl Lee

Please ignore this question, for some reason I didn’t get the email with the WTC update on Feb 19. And Shannon has covered it well today in VL. Thanks Daryl

Randall Smith

Can you give an update on the Pioneer Credit situation and what could be behind the recent downward trend in share price?

Bruce Glimmerveen

HI Team,

I hold a small number of MBLHB which are due for full repayment in April 2020. In their repayment letter they say – “The MIS repayment is proposed to occur through a reduction of capital on each MIS preference share of $99.99, followed by redemption for $0.01 per MIS preference share. MIS Holders will receive a single payment of $100 per security on 15 April 2020.” Can you explain what this means in laymens terms.

Thank you
Bruce from NSW

Keith Eglen

Not impressed with VL this time, sorry Shannon, you did your best but lots of background noise and charts too small to be viewed!

Shannon Rivkin

Hi Keith,

I appreciate the feedback and do not think we will be doing it that way again! Sorry it didn’t turn out as well as usual.

Regards,
Shannon

Bruce Glimmerveen

Hi Team,
With an improved offer for CTX on the table can you discuss the takeover appeal with special emphasis on available franking credits.
Thank you Bruce from NSW.

Bruce Glimmerveen

Hi Team, Macquarie Bank is issuing hybrids in the form Macquarie Bank Capital Notes 2 (BCN2)
to raise $400 million more or less. Can you discuss and compare to our current hybrid holdings.
Cheers Bruce from NSW.

Ian Guy

Hi Guys
I have been trading through the Rivkin CMC platform now for a while and recently downloaded the CMC mobile app from the Play store. Unfortunately I do not seem to be able to login through the app. Is this a bug or is the Rivkin platform not supported through the app. Keep up the good work.
Ian

Rafael Alton

Dear team, please provide your view on the recently announced Ramelius takeover attempt for Spectrum Metals.

Ron Hill

What has happened to the connection to CMC in the new website format. I would always go the the Rivkin website to see the latest updates but also to check my watchlists which I no longer seem to be able to do. It was convenient to get all of my investment information from the Rivkin website.

Alan Stewart

Hypothetically if an investor (like myself) got the jitters about the market and sold off all stock other than the income portfolio and increased all income holdings proportionately how would you consider that on a risk level?
eg. what has happened to the income stocks in past market downturns

Nathan Smith

Hi Shannon and Thomas, could you please update me on the possible date when apt, returns the over subscription capital.
By the way Happy New year to Rivkin and Team etc.

James Yewers

Nearmap NEA has dropped 30% on profit guidance. It is also a heavily shorted stock. Has it been oversold and does it present a buying opportunity?

Gayle Brown

Hi, I have been a holder of LEP since 2012. Since that time I have periodically increased the holding…but I am not the only one, the largest shareholder, Caledonia Investments has regularly and systematically been increasing it’s shareholding also and has now reached approx 38%. What I have noticed is that in it’s latest 2 notices it has been using cash settled swaps rather than buying the direct securities. A couple of years ago Caledonia made an aborted takeover attempt. Is this a potential sign that they may try again?

Monika & Wayne Skinner

Hi guys, what are your thoughts on QAN, after the virus scare do you consider it will be business as usual. I note today that they have announced their China routes will stay open.

Daniel Panasiuk

Morning, can we please get a 101 update on whats happening with asx code: ISX.

Mervyn Yee

Hi Shannon.

PNC has fallen to $1.765 today. The original recommendation said this trade was relevant to people in low tax paying vehicles… at $1.765, is this trade now relevant for people in higher tax paying vehicles? Also, can you please clarify why this trade is a high risk arbitrage when there is a cash offer on the table?

Thank you.

Ali Oral

Hi Mervyn,

We will address your question in the Virtually Live on 30 January 2020.

Cheers
Ali

Ray Clifford

Hi team,

Over the years I have purchased shares through a few different brokers and received shares through IPO’s, that has scattered my holdings so I can’t just look in one register to see my entire holding.

I am aware that I can transfer shares from one broker to another, thereby allowing me to see all of my portfolio in one place. Is there any downside to doing that ? Or is there any upside that I haven’t thought of ?

With thanks,

Ray
Wardell

Ali Oral

Hi Ray,

We will address your question in the Virtually Live on 30 January 2020.

Cheers
Ali

Axel Neumann

Well, that was a bit of a waste of time! I normally look forward to your comments and have learned over the time to buy any of your “by the way” recommendations, as 80% of them turn out to be winners!
BUT THIS SHOW WAS A DISASTER!
Take some of the money, we all have, and and get a proper audio engineer in the studio, so we might actually understand what You are saying! But this time somebody might have overdone the ‘echo-chamber-hall’ effect!
NOT HAPPY , JAN !

Kind Regards

Axel

Anonymous User

Hi ALex,

apologies for any inconvenience incurred as a result of the technical issues we faced. The issue has since been fixed and an email was sent yesterday with a detailed overview of all content covered in last weeks episode. If you didn’t get a chance to view the content, please click here

Kind regards,

Thomas Brunton

Phillip Kariatlis

Would you recommend HSN as a stock worth purchasing?
thank you

Ali Oral

Hi Phillip.

We will address your question in the Virtually Live on 30 January 2020.

Cheers
Ali

Bruce Glimmerveen

Hi Team,
Is there any update on our event trade OMN?
Bruce from NSW

Paul Farrugia

Re QMS Media Ltd Scheme Meeting, will we be intraucted how to vote please. Thanks you.
Paul Farrugia 11456

Patrick Nield

Patrick from WA
Hi to the team. Would you be able to give your opinion on IVE Group (IGL) as a reliable dividend stock.
With thanks to the team

Daniel Panasiuk

Would be good if you could add to virtually live an educational piece. For example how to “jump the que”, the role of “intermediary banks when transferring cash overseas”, for events trades can you add the last day you can buy to be entitled to the franking credits please. A tutorial on how to navigate your challenging new website would also help.

Ralph Hamilton

Hi Team, Ralph from Brissie here.
What is your opinion of the regional banks. As you would expect, I am a BOQ investor, and customer. BOQ in the past, has always been good to me, both as a long term and short term investor. Are they now still worth holding, or is it time to go elswhere?

Thanks Team.

William O'Loughlin

Hi Ralph,
We will address your question in the Virtually Live on 16 January 2020.
Cheers,
William

Bruce Scott

Hi All at Rivkin Happy New Year
I have been looking at Spark Infrastructure (SKI) And would appreciate your opinions
The Dividend Yield is currently at 7.4 % and the P/E Ratio looks a little on the High Side at 26 .
Currently Trading at its 52 week low end of the scale at $2.08
Regards Bruce Maroubra.

William O'Loughlin

Hi Bruce,
We will address your question in the Virtually Live on 16 January 2020.
Cheers,
William

Ian Guy

Hi guys
I have been offered shares in the upcoming NST (North Star Resources) share purchase plan. The shares are offered at $9 a share and are currently trading at around $11.90. It seems to be a no brainer but am interested in your thoughts.

Cheers Ian

William O'Loughlin

Hi Ian,
We will add this question to be answered in the Virtually Live on Thursday 9 January.
Regards,
William

John Gordon

Hi Team,
Would you please give us your thoughts, on the consequences of these terrible bush fires on ASX listed companies. Which will profit and which will loose, as a result. My thinking is, I would not buy into an insurance company, right now. On the other hand. building supply companies will do better, but probably a year down the line. Will it make much difference to retailers, like HVN or SUL, etc?
I would appreciate your thoughts.
Best regards,
John
NSW

William O'Loughlin

Hi John,
We will add this question to be answered in the Virtually Live on Thursday 9 January.
Regards,
William

William O'Loughlin

Hi Phillip,
Actually after the substantial share price decline I was again comfortable with the stock again. It has since rallied off those lows but is still somewhat off the highs. I also consider it a positive that the EGA takeover is now effectively over so it no longer has that hanging over it.
Cheers,
Will

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