Strategy
Momentum
US

US Momentum Strategy

2 Nov 2020
By
The US Momentum strategy works on the idea that stock prices that have risen significantly over the past, relative to their peers, tend to continue to outperform. This is known as the momentum effect and has been examined extensively in the academic literature. This strategy takes advantage of this effect by buying the top 10 momentum stocks which are a member of either the S&P100 or the Nasdaq100. As there is some overlap between the two indices, this results in a pool of approximately 175 stocks.

Minimum Investment Amount and Period

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Period

Contrary to popular belief, Lorem Ipsum is not simply random text. It has roots in a piece of classical Latin literature from 45 BC, making it over 2000 years old. Richard McClintock, a Latin professor at Hampden-Sydney College in Virginia, looked up one of the more obscure Latin words, consectetur, from a Lorem Ipsum passage, and going through the cites of the word in classical literature, discovered the undoubtable source. Lorem Ipsum comes from sections 1.10.32 and 1.10.33 of "de Finibus Bonorum et Malorum" (The Extremes of Good and Evil) by Cicero, written in 45 BC. This book is a treatise on the theory of ethics, very popular during the Renaissance. The first line of Lorem Ipsum, "Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet..", comes from a line in section 1.10.32.

Stock codeStock nameSectorCurrent priceReturn 12mMom rank
NVDA
NVIDIA Corp
Information Technology
$549.46214.71%
1
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices Inc
Information Technology
$84.48199.75%
2
DXCM
DexCom Inc
Health Care
$374.89177.95%
3
ETSY
Etsy Inc
Consumer Discretionary
$134.56144.28%
4
AAPL
Apple Inc
Information Technology
$113.16113.35%
5
REGN
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc
Health Care
$581.64107.25%
6
SWKS
Skyworks Solutions Inc
Information Technology
$147.27101.64%
7
WST
West Pharmaceutical Services I
Health Care
$290.33100.43%
8
NOW
ServiceNow Inc
Information Technology
$491.5499.52%
9
PYPL
PayPal Holdings Inc
Information Technology
$191.6697.47%
10
NFLX
Netflix Inc
Communication Services
$505.8796.81%
11
QRVO
Qorvo Inc
Information Technology
$131.0889.28%
12
AMZN
Amazon.com Inc
Consumer Discretionary
$3,099.9688.02%
13
ADBE
Adobe Inc
Information Technology
$478.9887.32%
14
CTLT
Catalent Inc
Health Care
$88.8583.45%
15

US Momentum Strategy

The US Momentum Strategy sources stocks from either the S&P100 or Nasdaq100 indices, which contain the largest capitalisation stocks from the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq. By searching this universe for stocks that have risen the most over the prior 6 to 12 months, we are banking on previous momentum persisting for a good proportion of the chosen stocks.

Of course, not all trades will be winners, but according to the back-testing, the strategy closes approximately 55% of trades with a profit and produces an average return of 18.6% for these trades. On the other side, the average loss per losing trade is only -8.5%. These statistics show why the strategy can produce a market-beating return over the long term, but they also show that it only works when an investor buys the entire portfolio. Picking and choosing individual stocks from this table has a reasonable probability of selecting a losing trade. Similarly, adjusting the portfolio when the strategy re-balances each month is essential to make sure you hold the optimal portfolio of stocks.

How To Follow This Strategy

Rivkin’s strategies are designed to be as easy as possible for investors to follow. To follow the US Momentum strategy, investors need to buy the stocks in the above table in equal weights. Weights can drift over time as stock prices move, but we only recommend re-balancing stock weights if they stray too far from the target weight (10% per stock). The stock volumes shown in this table are based on a US$5,000 investment per stock which produces a US$50,000 portfolio. Being a US strategy, this is priced in US dollars and therefore, to get the Australian dollar value, the current exchange rate should be applied.

Once per month, the list of stocks will be updated in what we call a ‘re-balance’. This means investors will need to look at the new list and sell any stocks that are no longer on the list. After these stocks are sold, the new stocks from the current table can be bought.

About The Strategy

The US Momentum strategy was developed by Rivkin during 2015 and was rolled out as a strategy to clients in April 2016. Extensive back-testing was done to create and refine the strategy, and it is this back-testing that we rely on to give us increased confidence about future expectations. Please click here to find out more about the strategy.

 

Important notice:

Quantities and calculations in this post use the Rivkin Model and might differ from yours. This post does not constitute an invitation to buy or sell any securities. Before conducting any transaction, make sure you fully understand the terms of the product and the relevant risk factors involved. You can seek professional advice to determine the appropriateness and cost of any transaction from the broker you use.

SHOW COMMENTS / QUESTIONS (2)

2
Comments

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Peter G.

HOW DO I BUY US STOCK

Luke Bell

Hi Peter,

Thanks for the question. Members have the option to set up a Rivkin trading account which is powered by our partners CMC markets this will give you the capacity to trade a wide range of instruments including US stocks. For anyone that is interested feel free to reach out to the team at [email protected] so we can assist.

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