United States
Wall Street delivered its strongest session in six weeks on Monday as technology stocks drove a broad market rebound, with traders growing increasingly confident that the Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut in December.
The S&P 500 climbed 1.5 per cent while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged 2.6 per cent in its best performance since May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a more modest 0.4 per cent, but nine of the S&P 500’s 11 industry groups finished higher. Tesla jumped 7 per cent and Alphabet gained 6 per cent, propelling the NYSE Fang+ Index of megacap tech stocks 3.2 per cent higher.
The rally came after multiple Fed officials signalled their support for continuing the easing cycle. Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated backing for a rate cut next month, while New York Fed President John Williams said a near-term reduction remains possible. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also expressed support for lowering rates in December. Money markets now price in more than 70 per cent odds of a quarter-point cut at the December meeting, after those probabilities had briefly fallen below 40 per cent during last week’s volatile trading.
This week brings a packed data calendar, with September retail sales figures due Tuesday expected to show moderation as consumers remain squeezed by high prices. Other releases include the producer price index and durable goods orders for September, while Wednesday’s jobless claims covering the November survey week will take on added importance as the Fed relies on alternative indicators in the absence of payroll figures.
In geopolitical developments, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first talks since agreeing to a tariff truce last month, discussing trade, Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Europe
European stocks gained modestly, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.1 per cent, as dovish Fed comments helped offset losses triggered by pharmaceutical giant Novo Nordisk and concerns about a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal.
Novo Nordisk plunged 5.8 per cent after trials of a pill version of Ozempic failed to slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease, weighing on the broader healthcare sector which declined 0.3 per cent. Bayer provided the counterpoint, surging 10.9 per cent on positive results from trials of its experimental stroke-prevention drug.
Defence stocks fell to a seven-month low as investors monitored developments around a potential US-brokered peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. Rheinmetall tumbled 5.0 per cent, Safran dropped 2.4 per cent, and BAE Systems declined 3.6 per cent. By contrast, stocks seen as beneficiaries of any ceasefire outperformed, with the Bank of America Ukraine Recovery basket rising 1.4 per cent.
Technology stocks rebounded from a two-month low, with the sector gaining 1.4 per cent. ASML advanced 3.0 per cent, Infineon climbed 3.7 per cent, and SAP rose 1.2 per cent. Basic resources also performed strongly, up 1.6 per cent, with Glencore gaining 2.5 per cent and ArcelorMittal jumping 3.2 per cent. BHP walked away from a fresh takeover approach for Anglo American, which rose 0.9 per cent.
The automotive sector added 0.8 per cent, led by Stellantis, which surged 3.7 per cent as it boosts Citroën output on demand for affordable cars. BMW advanced 2.3 per cent and Mercedes-Benz gained 0.8 per cent after both were reinstated at buy.
Energy stocks edged 0.2 per cent higher, with Siemens Energy jumping 5.6 per cent following an upgrade. Utilities underperformed, declining 0.2 per cent, as European natural gas fell below €30 per megawatt-hour for the first time in more than a year due to rising imports and peace talk developments.
Australia
Australian share futures pointed to a solid start, up 35 points or 0.4 per cent to 8,572, bolstered by the broad Wall Street rebound and renewed confidence in Fed easing.
BHP confirmed it has walked away from Anglo American again after a new takeover approach floundered. Morningstar said Macquarie Asset Management’s $5.20-per-share indicative bid for Qube is likely to succeed, calling it an attractive offer pitched 30 per cent above Qube’s standalone fair value. Morgan Stanley cut Qube to equal-weight with a $5.20 price target.
Web Travel Group delivered record first-half numbers, with Total Transaction Value up 22 per cent to $3.2 billion and underlying EBITDA up 17 per cent to $81.7 million. The company reaffirmed guidance for record FY26 underlying EBITDA of $147–155 million. Chief financial officer Tony Ristevski will depart in May 2026 to pursue an external opportunity.
SRG Global secured $650 million worth of work across Australia and New Zealand, with contracts spanning water, defence, transport, energy, resources, health and education. Fortescue tapped SRG for civil works at its Bonney Downs Wind Farm.
Morningstar senior equity analyst Mark Taylor said Mineral Resources represents a buying opportunity, forecasting lithium prices to more than double to over US$20,000 per tonne by fiscal 2028 from around US$8,000 now.
New Zealand’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.25 per cent on Wednesday, with policymakers likely to leave the door open for further reductions in 2026 if the economy fails to gather momentum.
McGrathNicol’s annual Working Capital Report found Australian companies unlocked $8.2 billion in cash last year as working capital performance improved across most sectors, with 53 per cent of 278 ASX-listed firms shortening their working capital cycles.
Commodities and currencies
Oil prices pushed higher, with West Texas Intermediate rising 1.7 per cent to US$59.02 per barrel and Brent crude advancing 1.2 per cent to US$63.34 per barrel, as traders weighed the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal against an already well-supplied market.
Gold gained 1.6 per cent to US$4,130.78 per ounce as traders bet on a December Fed rate cut. Iron ore climbed 1 per cent to US$105.00 per tonne.
The Australian dollar edged 0.1 per cent higher to US64.63¢, while the New Zealand dollar held steady at US56.11¢. Bitcoin recovered from its recent selloff, trading 1.3 per cent higher at US$88,698 after finding a floor around US$85,421 earlier in the session. Ether surged 4.6 per cent to US$2,971.56.
Economic Calendar
US:
- Retail Sales Advance MoM 00:30
- PPI Final Demand MoM 00:30
- Conf. Board Consumer Confidence Nov 02:00
This article was written by Calvin Curdie, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
