United States
Wall Street closed out a shortened Black Friday session with modest gains, though the rally lacked conviction amid volumes that were more than 30 per cent below the 30-day average. The S&P 500 edged up 0.4 per cent, while the Nasdaq 100 added 0.5 per cent, with Intel among the biggest gainers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5 per cent.
The CME outage, which lasted longer than a similar incident in 2019, created an unusual start to the trading day. The disruption was triggered by a cooling system failure at a CyrusOne data centre, affecting multiple markets including gold futures and Comex options. While the EBS foreign exchange platform reopened at 7am New York time without major volatility, some market participants paused trading for risk management reasons.
Despite the technical hiccup, retail-focused stocks caught a bid on one of the biggest shopping days of the year. Amazon shares climbed 1.2 per cent while Walmart hit a record high, suggesting consumer spending remains resilient heading into the holiday season.
The broader context for US markets remains mixed. November proved challenging for technology stocks, with the Nasdaq heading for its first monthly loss since March as investors rotated away from big tech winners into defensive sectors like healthcare. The S&P 500 had been down as much as 4.7 per cent earlier in the month before staging a late recovery, helped by expectations of faster Fed rate cuts than initially anticipated.
Money markets continue to price in roughly an 80 per cent probability of a December rate cut, though next week’s economic calendar, including private payrolls data and the Fed’s favoured inflation gauge, could shift those expectations.
Europe
European bourses managed modest gains, with the Stoxx 600 inching up 0.2 per cent in subdued volumes as traders digested the CME disruption and positioned ahead of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. The index closed out November with health care leading sector performance, up nearly 6 per cent for the month, while technology shares lagged, falling more than 5 per cent.
Delivery Hero emerged as a standout performer, surging 13 per cent on reports that several large shareholders are pressuring the company to conduct a strategic review. The German food delivery giant’s rally provided one of the few bright spots in an otherwise lacklustre session.
Travel stocks were the only significant outperformers on the day, though UK hospitality names struggled following Wednesday’s budget. Whitbread plunged 11.5 per cent after Bernstein issued a double-downgrade following the Chancellor’s tax announcements.
The automotive sector showed resilience, with Stellantis gaining 2 per cent and Volkswagen adding 1.2 per cent. Chemical stocks also performed well, led by Givaudan’s 1.7 per cent advance, while banks treaded water despite earlier gains in UK lenders following budget clarity.
Australia
The ASX 200 closed virtually unchanged at 8,614.10 on Friday, capping off its worst month since March with a 3 per cent decline in November. Technology shares bore the brunt of the selling, mirroring the global rotation away from growth stocks, while the financial sector recorded its worst month since June 2022.
HMC Capital provided a rare bright spot, surging 9 per cent to cap its best monthly performance since December 2023. The alternative asset manager has attracted renewed analyst optimism despite being the worst performer on the benchmark year-to-date.
Looking ahead to the week, all eyes will be on Wednesday’s third-quarter GDP data, with consensus expectations centring on a 0.7 per cent quarterly rise and 2.3 per cent annual growth. Westpac is tipping an above-consensus 0.8 per cent quarterly gain, driven by domestic consumption.
The robust growth expectations are complicating the Reserve Bank’s task, with markets increasingly pricing in the possibility that the next move in rates could be up rather than down. As NAB’s Ray Attrill noted, a consensus-beating GDP print would “reinforce the notion that the RBA is going nowhere.”
Corporate developments included Synlait Milk appointing Richard Hickson as chief operating officer, adding experienced dairy sector leadership ahead of his February 2026 start date.
Commodities and currencies
Oil prices remained under pressure, on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline as traders assessed an already oversupplied market ahead of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. The cartel confirmed it will stick with plans to pause production increases during the first quarter of 2026, citing weaker seasonal market conditions. Brent crude edged up 1.4 per cent to US$59.46 per barrel on Friday but remains down 15 per cent for the year.
Gold proved volatile during the CME outage, with the disruption affecting trading across contracts including futures and Comex options. Spot bullion ultimately resumed its climb as trading normalised, advancing 1.3 per cent to US$4,210.79 an ounce.
The Australian dollar gained 0.2 per cent to US65.44 cents, while iron ore slipped 1.4 per cent to US$101.90 per tonne.
Economic Calendar
US:
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 01:45
- ISM Manufacturing Nov 02:00
EU:
- HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Nov 20:00
This article was written by Calvin Curdie, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
