United States
Wall Street steadied overnight as investors positioned ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly results, with the S&P 500 halting a four-day losing streak to rise 0.4% to around 6,642. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1%.
The real action came after the closing bell. Nvidia reported third-quarter revenue of $US57 billion and forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $US65 billion, both figures exceeding market expectations. The company’s data centre revenue hit a record $US51.2 billion, up 25% from the previous quarter and 66% year-on-year. Shares jumped 3.5% in after-hours trading, with a roughly $390 billion exchange-traded fund tracking the Nasdaq 100 rising in late hours.
Chief executive Jensen Huang struck an emphatically bullish tone, declaring that “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out” while adding that “compute demand keeps accelerating and compounding across training and inference”. The strong results and guidance helped counter mounting concerns that the explosion in AI spending was headed for a crash.
The results carry particular significance given Nvidia’s outsized influence on major indices. The company has grown larger than the energy, materials, and real estate sectors combined, and depending on the day, even exceeds the entire industrials sector.
Federal Reserve commentary added another layer to the market narrative. Minutes from the October meeting revealed that many officials believe it would likely be appropriate to keep rates steady for the remainder of 2025. The hawkish tone came on the eve of the September jobs report, which has been delayed by the government shutdown. Traders have nearly priced out a December rate cut, with the dollar rising 0.5% overnight.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed it won’t publish a standalone October jobs report, but will incorporate those payroll figures into November data due after the Fed’s final meeting of 2025. This data vacuum leaves policymakers flying blind at a critical juncture, though it hasn’t deterred some analysts from maintaining a constructive outlook on equities.
Europe
European markets closed essentially flat, with the Stoxx 600 edging down 0.03% as investors awaited Nvidia’s results and digested a report suggesting the White House could soon unveil a peace agreement to end the war in Ukraine.
The potential peace deal had a pronounced sectoral impact. A UBS basket of stocks that would benefit from a Ukraine ceasefire surged 2.5%, lifting chemicals and construction shares. However, defence contractors bore the brunt of the speculation, with Rheinmetall plummeting 7%, BAE Systems falling 4.5%, and Leonardo dropping 4.4%.
Technology shares outperformed, rising 0.4% ahead of Nvidia’s results, with ASML gaining 2.4% and ASM International adding 1.3%. The sector has been seeking direction after recent volatility, and strong results from Nvidia could provide the catalyst for a broader recovery.
Banks advanced 0.2%, with Santander rising 1.8% and BBVA adding 1.4%. However, UniCredit fell 1.3% after stating there are no active merger and acquisition discussions with BPER Banca. Lloyds declined 1.6% after announcing the acquisition of UK fintech Curve.
Media stocks led the advance, surging 2% with Universal Music Group jumping 6.2%. The sector rebounded from a two-year low as sentiment improved following recent oversold conditions.
Energy shares underperformed, falling 0.4% as European natural gas futures declined on the Ukraine peace deal speculation. Shell dropped 1% and BP fell 0.6%, while oil prices retreated sharply on easing geopolitical concerns.
Telecommunications closed at a seven-month low after Nokia crashed 7% following underwhelming target announcements. The Finnish network equipment maker’s disappointing guidance raised fresh questions about the sector’s growth prospects.
Utilities suffered the session’s worst performance, declining 1.4%, with Italian power giant Enel falling 2.8% after being downgraded by analysts.
Australia
Local futures point to a solid 0.6% gain at the open, or about 53 points, as Nvidia’s strong results lifted sentiment for technology and growth stocks globally. The positive lead comes despite Tuesday’s brutal 1.9% plunge that wiped $167 billion off the ASX 200.
The a2 Milk Company upgraded its FY26 revenue guidance after stronger-than-expected trading across core product categories and favourable currency movements. The company now expects low double-digit revenue growth compared with FY25, with infant milk formula, other nutritional products, and liquid milk all performing ahead of expectations. A weaker New Zealand dollar is expected to provide an additional boost to reported sales.
Liontown Resources achieved a strong result from its inaugural online spodumene auction, securing a winning bid of $US1,254 per dry metric tonne for SC6.0-equivalent product. More than 50 qualified buyers from nine countries participated in the January 2026 loading auction via the Metalshub marketplace. Managing director Tony Ottaviano called it “an outstanding result” that demonstrates improving market conditions and buyer confidence.
Nufarm was upgraded to neutral at Citi and hold at Jefferies following its larger-than-expected $165.3 million loss for FY25. Despite the headline loss, underlying EBITDA fell just 3% to $302.5 million, with crop protection earnings rising 18% across all regions.
Cash Converters completed the retail component of its accelerated entitlement offer, raising a total of about $25 million to help finance the $37 million acquisition of 29 Australian franchise stores. The retail offer generated $9.26 million, with eligible shareholders taking up about 29% of their entitlements.
Yesterday’s key local release was the third-quarter wage price index, which came in at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, further solidifying the case for a prolonged Reserve Bank pause on interest rate cuts.
TPG Telecom is expected to resume trading after completing a $300 million institutional raising, initially targeting up to $550 million before being scaled back following the disclosure of a tragic incident involving Triple Zero access.
Commodities and currencies
Crude oil tumbled 2% to $US59.54 a barrel as geopolitical risks appeared to ease following reports that Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky had arrived in Turkey to reinvigorate peace negotiations with Russia. An Axios report suggesting the US has been consulting the Kremlin to draft a new peace plan further cushioned supply concerns.
The Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report showed petrol and distillate stockpiles in the US built for the first time in over a month, adding to demand concerns. Brent crude fell 2.1% to $US63.55 a barrel.
Gold edged 0.2% higher to $US4,074.18 an ounce, finding modest support as safe-haven demand persisted despite the stronger dollar. The precious metal has been caught between competing forces – the dimmer prospects for near-term Fed rate cuts weighing on prices, while broader market uncertainty provides support.
The Australian dollar weakened 0.7% to US64.64¢ as the greenback strengthened across the board following the hawkish Fed minutes. The local currency faced additional pressure from softer-than-expected wage growth data, which reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank will keep rates on hold for an extended period.
The New Zealand dollar fared even worse, declining 1.1% to US55.93¢ as investors reassessed the outlook for trans-Tasman monetary policy.
Bitcoin’s slide accelerated, falling 2.9% to $US89,747 as the cryptocurrency extended its retreat from October’s record highs. The decline reflects broader risk-off sentiment and ongoing questions about regulatory developments under the incoming US administration.
Iron ore held relatively steady, providing some support for Australian resource stocks ahead of today’s open. Base metals were mixed, with copper gaining ground on Chile’s raised price forecasts, though concerns about Chinese demand continue to weigh on the sector.
Economic Calendar
US:
- Initial Jobless Claims 00:30
- Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Sep 00:30
- Unemployment Rate Sep 00:30
- Existing Home Sales Oct 02:00
This article was written by Calvin Curdie, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
