United States
Global equities steadied overnight as US markets remained closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, leaving investors to focus on futures trading and shifting expectations around the Federal Reserve’s next move. The MSCI All Country World Index was broadly unchanged, holding on to a recovery that has trimmed its November decline to just 0.4 per cent after being down nearly 4 per cent only a week ago. S&P 500 futures were steady, while the S&P 500 itself sits just 1.1 per cent below its record high heading into the holiday-shortened session.
The key driver for sentiment continues to be the rapid repricing of Fed rate-cut expectations. Money markets now assign an 80 per cent probability of a quarter-point cut in December, with traders leaning towards three more cuts by the end of 2026. That is a sharp shift from expectations earlier this month, when just three cuts in total were projected. The change in tone has supported risk appetite, with Bitcoin pushing above $91,000 for the first time in a week and the dollar pausing a two-day retreat.
With the VIX volatility index at a three-week low and futures trading muted, the focus now turns to Friday’s half-day session in New York. The near-term trend for US equities has turned positive, underpinned by this week’s broad rebound in market breadth. Moves were modest across other asset classes, with 10-year Treasury yields holding near 3.99 per cent, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index finished little changed.
Europe
European markets posted small gains as investors weighed takeover chatter and ongoing signs of stabilisation in global equities. The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.1 per cent, setting the index up to close November with a modest monthly gain and extending its run of positive months to five. Trading volumes were well below average due to the US holiday, but individual stock moves grabbed attention.
Puma SE surged 19 per cent – its biggest gain in more than two decades – after reports that multiple buyers, including China’s Anta Sports, are exploring a potential takeover. The rally helped Germany’s DAX rise 0.3 per cent and lifted sentiment across the consumer discretionary sector.
Financial services and auto stocks were among the better performers, while technology and health care names lagged. In the UK, the FTSE 250 gained 0.9 per cent, while gilts partially unwound Wednesday’s rally following the Chancellor’s Autumn budget. The pound was little changed at $1.3237.
Across the bond market, 10-year German Bund yields held steady at 2.68 per cent. Broader risk appetite was reflected in equities across Asia and Europe, including Japan and South Korea, where tech stocks led regional gains earlier in the day.
Corporate news also influenced trading in Europe. Monte dei Paschi’s CEO was notified he is under investigation related to the bank’s takeover of Mediobanca, while Allfunds Group attracted takeover interest from Deutsche Boerse. Morgan Stanley was fined €101 million over tax matters, and China Vanke faced funding challenges after banks declined to extend a short-term loan.
Australia
The ASX is set for a softer start, with futures pointing down 33 points or 0.4 per cent to 8599. This comes despite a strong week for the local market, with the S&P/ASX 200 on track for a 2 per cent gain. With Wall Street shut and set for only a half-day session on Friday, trading volumes were light and direction subdued.
On Thursday, the benchmark index eked out a 0.1 per cent rise to close at 8617.3, supported by a rebound in tech stocks. Growing confidence in a December Fed rate cut helped revive enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence theme. WiseTech climbed 6.9 per cent after appointing a new board member, while Xero lifted 2.3 per cent and Life360 lost 1.1 per cent.
Gold miners were also stronger after spot gold briefly hit $US4168 an ounce on improved rate-cut expectations. Newmont, Evolution, and Bellevue Gold all posted solid gains. However, property stocks and financials faced profit-taking as the local bond market priced the odds of a rate increase in Australia next year at roughly 50:50.
Energy names weighed on the broader index as Brent crude drifted towards $US62 a barrel ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting. Woodside fell 1 per cent and Santos slid 1.8 per cent. Iron ore producers also weakened as Singapore futures eased, dragging Fortescue, Rio Tinto, and BHP lower into the close.
Corporate updates added to the mixed tone. Suncorp revealed more than 10,000 insurance claims stemming from recent storms, with costs estimated at $350 million, sending the stock down 1.9 per cent. QBE fell 3.7 per cent. On the upside, Reece gained 4 per cent after announcing a new share buyback, while NRW Holdings jumped 3.5 per cent on upgraded guidance. DroneShield, after a strong recent run, shed 7.8 per cent as investors locked in profits.
Commodities and currencies
Oil markets were choppy, with West Texas Intermediate rising 0.8 per cent to $US59.13 a barrel after comments from Russia suggesting US proposals for ending the war in Ukraine could form the basis of future negotiations. Brent crude traded around $US63.34 a barrel. Platinum touched a one-month high, supported by expectations of increased demand after the launch of a new Chinese futures contract.
Gold held near recent levels, with spot prices little changed after their overnight rise. Iron ore eased slightly to $US103.10 a tonne.
In currency markets, the Australian dollar edged up 0.2 per cent to US65.30¢. The euro and pound were steady, while the yen hovered near 156.35 per US dollar. Most emerging-market currencies were unchanged, though the Brazilian real slipped 0.4 per cent.
Across digital assets, Bitcoin gained 2.1 per cent to trade near $US91,485, while Ether added 0.3 per cent to $US3032.
Economic Calendar
No major data
This article was written by Calvin Curdie, Rivkin Securities Pty Ltd. Enquiries can be made via [email protected] or by phoning +612 8302 3632.
